Feb 16, 2026
Dubai’s residential real estate market closed 2025 with record-breaking performance, and the momentum is shaping expectations for 2026.
Transaction volumes crossed 200,000 sales, with total values reaching AED 541.5 billion, while residential prices rose 12.1% in 2025, according to Cavendish Maxwell. Although price growth slowed from 16.5% in 2024, the market remains firmly in expansion territory.
Rental growth also moderated to 11–12% by year-end, compared to 13–15% earlier in the year.
Off-Plan Continues to Lead Dubai Real Estate Activity
Off-plan transactions accounted for 72.9% of total real estate activity in Dubai, up from 69.3% in 2024.
Transaction volumes in the off-plan segment reached 146,400 units, marking a 25% year-on-year increase. The segment remains the primary driver of growth, supported by new project launches and continued investor appetite.
In comparison, ready property sales reached 54,400 transactions, increasing 5% year-on-year. While more moderate, demand for ready units remained stable, particularly among end-users and rental investors.
For agents, this reinforces the importance of maintaining strong off-plan pipelines while balancing ready inventory for immediate occupancy clients.
Supply Outlook: 110,500 Units Projected for 2026
Looking ahead, approximately 110,500 residential units are projected for delivery in 2026.
However, based on historical completion trends, actual deliveries are expected to range between 33,000 and 50,000 units, with some spillover potentially moving into 2027.
In 2025, around 40,400 units were completed, below the initial projection of 82,600 units.
Apartments are expected to dominate upcoming supply, accounting for 84.3% of projected units through 2028.
Key locations expected to contribute significantly to new supply include:
Jumeirah Village Circle
Dubai South
Business Bay
Dubai Residence Complex
DAMAC Lagoons
For agents, understanding actual completion trends versus projected supply will be critical when advising buyers.
Luxury and Ultra-Luxury Market Performance
Dubai’s luxury residential segment recorded approximately 2,500 transactions in 2025, reflecting a 47.1% increase year-on-year.
Off-plan sales led luxury growth, rising 52.6% year-on-year and accounting for 70.5% of all luxury transactions.
The ultra-luxury segment recorded 302 transactions totaling AED 27.9 billion, with transaction volume increasing 31.9% and value rising 53.7% compared to 2024.
Demand in this segment continues to be supported by lifestyle appeal, fiscal advantages, political stability, tax environment, infrastructure, and investor-friendly visa programs.
Entering a More Balanced Market in 2026
Despite strong 2025 performance, the Dubai real estate market is expected to enter a more balanced phase in 2026.
UAE GDP growth is projected at 5.2% in 2026, with Dubai expected to expand by 4.5%, supported by infrastructure investment, population growth, and sustained tourism momentum.
However, moderating growth trajectories and supply pressures suggest a transition toward:
More selective buyer behavior
Moderate appreciation
Increased importance of pricing strategy
For agents, this means careful monitoring of:
Off-plan resale trends
Completion volumes
Price performance in high-supply locations
Rental growth trajectories
source: Middle East Economy